From caseybriggs.substack.com: YouGov’s first MRP poll for the upcoming election predicts the Coalition would win 73 seats, Labor 66, one Green, and ten independents.

The poll highlights that significant electoral shifts are expected in urban fringe seats, particularly in Sydney, but cautions against taking individual seat estimates as definitive.

The MRP model shows larger swings toward the Coalition in Labor-held seats, emphasizing the dynamics of independent candidates and their potential impact on the election outcome.